New analysis from the King’s Fund has highlighted how rising staff costs in social care are forcing local authorities to cut back on support, leaving more people without the help they need. The report, Social Care 360, warns of a vicious cycle where increasing wages, rising fees, and budget pressures are reducing the number of people receiving care, despite growing demand.

The introduction of the National Living Wage in 2016 has driven up the cost of providing care, leading local councils to pay significantly higher fees. Further financial strain has come from increased National Insurance contributions, and while a proposed ‘fair pay agreement’ could improve wages in the sector, there are concerns it will push costs even higher unless fully funded. According to Simon Bottery, Senior Fellow at the King’s Fund, without proper government support, local authorities will continue to cut back on services, meaning even more people will go without vital care.

Despite councils spending more on social care, the number of individuals receiving long-term support has fallen from 873,000 in 2015/16 to 859,000 in 2023/24. The biggest reduction was among older adults, with numbers dropping by nearly 30,000. At the same time, demand for care is increasing, with 2.1 million people requesting support last year, including a sharp rise among working-age adults. However, a rise in overseas care workers has helped to reduce sector vacancies.

Charities, including Mencap, warn that the social care system is in crisis, with many people struggling to access the help they desperately need. Jon Sparkes, Chief Executive of Mencap, described the situation as deeply concerning, urging the government to provide immediate funding instead of delaying reforms. With care providers under pressure and many people with learning disabilities struggling to find support, experts argue that urgent action is needed to prevent further decline in the system.